When will the US federal government shutdown fully end?

Started Oct 02, 2025 09:30PM UTC
Closed Nov 13, 2025 03:25AM UTC

A US federal government shutdown began on 1 October 2025, after Democrats refused to back a continuing resolution, citing spending cuts approved as as part of Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" in July 2025 (BBC, CBS News). For the purposes of this question, the "shutdown" will end upon funding appropriation legislation becoming law. A partial end (i.e., appropriations made for some but not all departments) will not count (Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget).

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The question closed "Between 3 November 2025 and 17 November 2025" with a closing date of 12 November 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 6 October 2025 0%
Between 6 October 2025 and 10 October 2025 0%
Between 11 October 2025 and 18 October 2025 0%
Between 19 October 2025 and 2 November 2025 0%
Between 3 November 2025 and 17 November 2025 89%
Not before 18 November 2025 11%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 130
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 113
Number of Forecasts 758
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 261
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.137837
2.
-0.121736
3.
-0.062316
4.
-0.060962
5.
-0.056792

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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