When will Israel publicly announce that all persons captured in the attack in southern Israel in early October 2023 have either been freed or are dead?
Closed Oct 13, 2025 09:37AM UTC
As of early October 2025, Hamas was still holding dozens of hostages who were captured in Hamas' attack on Israel in October 2023, but Hamas was actively negotiating details of a peace plan with the US and others (BBC, Al Jazeera, CNN). As of 7 October 2025, Israel stated that 20 of 48 hostages in Gaza were believed to still be alive (ABC News). Israel announcing that a hostage or hostages are presumed dead will count as to those particular hostages.
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The question closed "Before 8 November 2025" with a closing date of 13 October 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 8 November 2025 | 89% | |
| Between 8 November 2025 and 9 December 2025 | 8% | |
| Not before 10 December 2025 | 3% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 35 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 113 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 68 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 261 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
