Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel (Forces) of Taiwan and those of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 October 2026?

Started Oct 10, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2026 07:01AM UTC

The PRC maintained its aggressive posture toward Taiwan in 2025 (Focus Taiwan, Soufan Center, Deutsche Welle, Taiwan News). For the purposes of this question, a lethal confrontation is one that results in two or more fatalities among the Forces of both sides (total, not each). In the event of ambiguity as to the status of a party to a lethal confrontation as "Forces," an accusation by a UN member state other than the PRC that a pertinent party to the lethal confrontation was Forces of the relevant country will suffice. If those involved from one side are a mixture of relevant forces and putatively civilian persons, the whole group would be considered to be part of the Forces (e.g., CNN). Cyberattacks alone will not count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 17.50% +0.94% -4.94% -3.36%
No 82.50% -0.94% +4.94% +3.36%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username