How many of the largest commercial banks in the US will fail between 10 October 2025 and 5 October 2026?

Started Oct 10, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 06, 2026 07:01AM UTC
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As of the launch of this question, two banks had failed in 2025, neither of which were among the "largest commercial banks" (Bankrate). The question will be suspended on 5 October 2026 and the outcome determined using data available from the Federal Reserve and open-source reporting. For the purposes of this question, "the largest commercial banks in the US" are those listed in the Federal Reserve's list of "Large Commercial Banks" as of 30 June 2025 (Federal Reserve - Large Commercial Banks, see "June 30, 2025"). A bank will be deemed to have failed if it files for bankruptcy, is taken over by the FDIC, or similar outcome (e.g., FDIC). The acquisition of a distressed bank by other institutions alone will not count (e.g., Federal Reserve - Wachovia).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
0 34.80% 0% +2.10% -2.90%
1 50.20% 0% -2.10% +1.40%
2 or 3 10.20% 0% 0% +0.30%
4 or more 4.80% 0% 0% +1.20%

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