Will Harvard University and the Trump administration publicly announce or acknowledge that they have reached a settlement agreement before 15 November 2025?

Started Oct 13, 2025 08:00AM UTC
Closed Nov 15, 2025 08:01AM UTC

On 30 September 2025, President Trump announced that Harvard University and his administration were "close" to an agreement to restore federal funding to the university and end related litigation (CNN, PBS). The agreement must include the restoration of previously existing federal funding to Harvard and end Harvard's litigation against the federal government related to the freezing of federal funds for the university's programs. Other Ivy League institutions that have settled with the federal government include Brown, Columbia, and the University of Pennsylvania (Guardian). The question will close as of both parties publicly announcing or acknowledging a qualifying agreement. Any settlement amount that must be paid by Harvard pursuant to the agreement is immaterial.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 15 November 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 6%
No 94%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 165
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 113
Number of Forecasts 352
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 261
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.093103
2.
-0.093103
3.
-0.093103
4.
-0.088545
5.
-0.087648

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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