janverkade and 
The Economist ask:
When will a new Dutch government be sworn in?
Closing Sep 30, 2026 07:01AM UTC
The nationalist Freedom Party (PVV) tied with the centrist Democrats 66 (D66) party with 26 seats each in the 29 October 2025 general election, though the latter won more votes and is expected to make the first attempt to form a government (aka cabinet) (Economist, Radio France Internationale, BBC, Dutch House of Representatives - Cabinet). After the 2017 election, it took parties a then-record 225 days from the election to form a government, with government formation after the 2021 election taking 299 days (Dutch News, Anadolu Agency). After the 2023 election, it took 223 days to form a government (AP). A caretaker government will not count, and whether new elections are called is immaterial.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 24 December 2025 | 6.14% | -0.04% | -2.86% |
| Between 24 December 2025 and 3 March 2026 | 45.82% | +0.04% | -4.18% |
| Between 4 March 2026 and 12 May 2026 | 23.52% | +0.02% | +4.52% |
| Between 13 May 2026 and 21 July 2026 | 13.18% | -0.02% | +2.18% |
| Between 22 July 2026 and 29 September 2026 | 7.16% | 0% | +0.16% |
| Not before 30 September 2026 | 4.18% | 0% | +0.18% |