The Economist asks:
What will be the US annual real GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2026?
Started
Nov 12, 2025 09:00AM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2026 07:01AM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2026 07:01AM UTC
The question will be suspended on 30 June 2026 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in late July 2026 (FRED, BEA - Release Schedule). As of the launch of this question, the real GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2025 was 3.8%.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Down by more than 3.0% | 1.00% | 0% | -1.00% |
| Down by more than 1.5% but at most 3.0% | 5.00% | 0% | 0% |
| Down by more than 0.0% but at most 1.5% | 17.00% | 0% | +1.00% |
| Up by at least 0.0%, but less than 1.5% | 26.00% | +2.00% | +1.00% |
| Up by at least 1.5%, but less than 3.0% | 38.00% | -2.00% | -2.00% |
| Up by at least 3.0%, but less than 4.5% | 11.00% | 0% | +1.00% |
| Up by 4.5% or more | 2.00% | 0% | 0% |