Russia's war in Ukraine continues, as planning for a second meeting between President Trump and President Putin fell apart (CNN, AP, Deutsche Welle). A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count. The Ukrainian government as recognized by the European Union must be party to the agreement to count. An armistice or a ceasefire of indefinite duration would count and must include the whole of Ukraine, including Donbas and Crimea. Time-limited agreements (e.g., 72-hour ceasefire) will not count. The date an agreement will take effect is immaterial.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.