The Economist asks:
In the current conflict in Sudan, when will the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) sign or announce a ceasefire with an intended indefinite duration or an intended duration of at least 28 days?
Closing Oct 01, 2026 07:01AM UTC
Fighting has continued between the SAF and RSF since 15 April 2023, and efforts to find a peace agreement continue (Economist, NBC News, Sudan Tribune). A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both the SAF and RSF and include the whole of Sudan to count. The date a ceasefire will take effect is immaterial. The intended duration of a ceasefire will be determined using credible, open-source reporting, and a qualifying intended duration must be agreed to at its inception (e.g., a 15-day ceasefire that is extended for another 15 days would not count), and a contingent extension (e.g., renewable every two weeks if conditions are met) will not count. Whether the ceasefire holds for its intended duration is immaterial. A peace deal that includes a cessation of all hostilities (i.e., a ceasefire, armistice) within the parameters laid out in the question description will count. For the purposes of this question, the inclusion of Abyei and/or Kafia Kingi is immaterial (Al Jazeera, Rift Valley Institute).
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 5 March 2026 | 11.00% | -2.47% | -2.96% |
| Between 5 March 2026 and 17 June 2026 | 20.00% | +1.00% | +5.67% |
| Between 18 June 2026 and 30 September 2026 | 16.00% | -0.63% | +0.96% |
| Not before 1 October 2026 | 53.00% | +2.09% | -3.67% |