Kinnaj asks:
When will the percentage of national parliament voting intention for the Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland, or AfD) reach or exceed 30%, according to Politico?
Started
Nov 21, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 18, 2026 08:01AM UTC
Closing Dec 18, 2026 08:01AM UTC
AfD has been surging in popularity in Germany in 2025 (Politico, Deutsche Welle). The question will be suspended on 17 December 2026 if still open and the outcome determined using data as provided in Politico's "Poll of Polls" page for Germany once data through and including 17 December 2026 are first published (Politico, use default "Smooth" view). Whether elections are called early and/or take place during the question's open period is immaterial.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 31 March 2026 | 8.40% | 0% | +1.40% |
| Between 31 March 2026 and 8 August 2026 | 22.10% | 0% | +8.00% |
| Between 9 August 2026 and 17 December 2026 | 11.20% | 0% | -1.90% |
| Not before 18 December 2026 | 58.30% | 0% | -7.50% |