What will be the spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year Treasury yield on 31 March 2026?
Started
Nov 28, 2025 04:30PM UTC
Closing Mar 31, 2026 07:01AM UTC
Closing Mar 31, 2026 07:01AM UTC
Challenges
The difference between interest rates on longer-term debt and shorter-term debt has been used historically to forecast, among other things, the rate of economic growth (Investopedia - Yield Curve). The question will be suspended on 30 March 2026 and the outcome determined using US Treasury Department data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity" (FRED). For 31 March 2025, the spread was 0.34%.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours |
|---|---|---|
| -0.25% or lower | 0.80% | 0% |
| Higher than -0.25%, but at most 0.00% | 1.80% | +0.20% |
| Higher than 0.00%, but at most 0.25% | 8.30% | +1.00% |
| Higher than 0.25%, but at most 0.50% | 28.00% | -6.90% |
| Higher than 0.50%, but at most 0.75% | 42.40% | +4.80% |
| Higher than 0.75%, but at most 1.00% | 5.20% | +0.90% |
| Higher than 1.00%, but at most 1.25% | 4.70% | +1.00% |
| Higher than 1.25%, but at most 1.50% | 4.20% | 0% |
| Higher than 1.50% | 4.60% | -1.00% |