What will be the effective yield on below-investment-grade corporate debt on 31 March 2026?
Started
Nov 28, 2025 04:30PM UTC
Closing Mar 31, 2026 07:01AM UTC
Closing Mar 31, 2026 07:01AM UTC
Challenges
"High-yield" bonds is a euphemism for "junk bonds," meaning debt that is rated below investment grade by major credit ratings agencies, which can be used as an indicator of financial market stress (Investopedia - High-Yield Bond, Investopedia - Investment Grade). The question will be suspended on 30 March 2026 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). For 31 March 2025, the effective yield was 7.53%.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 4.40% | 0.70% | +0.10% |
| At least 4.40%, but less than 5.20% | 0.90% | +0.10% |
| At least 5.20%, but less than 6.00% | 5.70% | +0.20% |
| At least 6.00%, but less than 6.80% | 39.10% | +1.00% |
| At least 6.80%, but less than 7.60% | 30.80% | +0.10% |
| At least 7.60%, but less than 8.40% | 17.80% | -1.60% |
| At least 8.40%, but less than 9.20% | 3.10% | 0% |
| At least 9.20%, but less than 10.00% | 1.20% | 0% |
| 10.00% or more | 0.70% | +0.10% |