Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 28 November 2026, will the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel (Forces) of India or Pakistan execute a military strike within the territory of the other, excluding Kashmiri territory?

Started Nov 28, 2025 04:30PM UTC
Closing Nov 28, 2026 08:01AM UTC

On 22 April 2025, militants in Indian-administered Kashmir killed dozens of tourists in the worst attack in the region in years, with India and Pakistan exchanging strikes in May 2025 (Al Jazeera, NBC News, Guardian, Scribd [NY Times Graphics]). A strike in the territorial waters will count. Indian Forces executing an attack in Pakistan-administered Kashmiri territory (i.e., Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan) will not count (Britannica - Azad Kashmir, Pakistan Ministry of Defence). Pakistani Forces executing an attack in Indian-administered Kashmiri territory (i.e., Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh union territories) will not count (Britannica - Jammu and Kashmir, Britannica - Ladakh). Actions not executed by the Forces will not count (e.g., intelligence services).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Yes 23.80% -9.50%
No 76.20% +9.50%

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