After Israel executed a sustained series of strikes on Iranian military and industrial infrastructure in June 2025, observers see the potential for additional fighting between the two countries (Economist, Hudson Institute, Iran International). The geographic origin of and weaponry used in a military strike will be immaterial so long as either 1) the weapon detonates or discharges on or over Iranian territory, or 2) the weapon is intercepted or destroyed while en route to Iranian territory. A cyberattack alone will not count. Actions not executed by the IDF will not count (e.g., covert assassinations of nuclear scientists by Mossad Al Jazeera). Public acknowledgment is not required, and the default evidentiary standard will be used, that being credible, open-source media reporting.

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