Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Between the week beginning 3 January 2026 and the week beginning 26 December 2026, how many total fatalities will occur in the Asia-Pacific Region due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?
Closing Jan 01, 2027 08:01AM UTC
The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) is an independent global monitor that collects data on conflicts and protests around the world (ACLED - About, ACLED - Methodology). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2026 and the outcome determined using aggregated data as reported by ACLED (ACLED - Asia Pacific Aggregated Data, free registration required). These data are recorded by week (the date shown is the first day of the week depicted), so "15-November-2025" would cover 15-21 November 2025 (ACLED - How To Use). The outcome will be determined by summing all figures in the "FATALITIES" column for the "WEEKS" of 3 January 2026 through and including 26 December 2026. The "EVENT_TYPE" is immaterial. Data will be accessed for resolution no sooner than 12 January 2027. Between the week beginning 30 December 2023 and the week beginning 21 December 2024, ACLED reported 28,759 fatalities in the Asia-Pacific region.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 15,000 | 26.00% | +14.89% |
| At least 15,000, but fewer than 23,000 | 18.00% | +6.89% |
| At least 23,000, but fewer than 31,000 | 13.00% | +1.89% |
| At least 31,000, but fewer than 39,000 | 10.50% | -0.61% |
| At least 39,000, but fewer than 47,000 | 8.00% | -3.11% |
| At least 47,000, but fewer than 55,000 | 7.50% | -3.61% |
| At least 55,000, but fewer than 63,000 | 6.00% | -5.11% |
| At least 63,000, but fewer than 71,000 | 5.50% | -5.61% |
| 71,000 or more | 5.50% | -5.61% |