In the Federal Reserve's projection materials released on 10 December 2025, the median projection for the federal funds rate for 2026 (specifically, "value of the midpoint of the projected appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the projected appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year") was 3.4%, unchanged from the projection released in September 2025 (Federal Reserve - FOMC Projection Materials December 2025, see "Table 1," CNBC). The question will be suspended on 17 March 2026 and the outcome determined using the next projection materials released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), expected on the second day of its two-day meeting scheduled for 17-18 March 2026 (Federal Reserve).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.