On the first day of his second term, President Trump signed Executive Order 14160 (the Order), which stated that it was the policy of the federal government to not recognize claims of US citizenship to persons when, among other things, "that person's mother was unlawfully present in the United States and the person's father was not a United States citizen or lawful permanent resident at the time of said person's birth" (Executive Order #14160, The Economist). Various parties successfully sued to block enforcement of the Order, and the Supreme Court agreed to hear an appeal from the Trump administration on 5 December 2025 (Supreme Court - Orders 5 December 2025, SCOTUSblog - Trump v. Barbara, PBS). Procedural issues with some of those suits were addressed in 2025 in Trump v. CASA (SCOTUSblog - Trump v. CASA). The statute 8 U.S.C. §1401(a), first adopted in 1940, mirrors the language from Section 1 of the Fourteenth Amendment (Cornell - 8 U.S.C. §1401(a), Congress.gov - Fourteenth Amendment). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2025 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue or issues of law, the question will close as "No." If the Court rules that the constitutional and statutory interpretation within the Order are legitimate, but also rules that the Order cannot be enforced as to the section described in the question for any reason (e.g., requires an act of Congress), the question will close "No" (Executive Order #14160, Section 2(a)(1)). The exact timing of when execution of the Order may take effect is immaterial.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.