Before 26 December 2026, will Iran's national military forces attempt to execute a military strike within the territory, airspace, or territorial waters of a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member state?

Started Jan 02, 2026 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 26, 2026 08:01AM UTC

After Iran's limited missile attack against a US military base in Qatar in June 2025, there are fears that other regional states could be drawn into the conflict between Israel and Iran (CBS News, Iran International, Al Arabiya). The GCC is a group of six Arab countries bordering the Persian Gulf (GCC). The geographic origin of and weaponry used in a military strike will be immaterial so long as either 1) the weapon detonates or discharges on or over GCC territory, or 2) the weapon is intercepted or destroyed while en route to GCC territory. A cyberattack alone will not count. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. Actions not executed by Iran's national military forces will not count, and Iranian proxy forces (e.g., Houthis, Kataib Hezbollah) in and of themselves are not considered part of Iranian national military forces. Public acknowledgment is not required, and the default evidentiary standard will be used, that being credible, open-source media reporting. Any strikes on Abu Musa and/or the Greater and Lesser Tunbs alone will not count (UAE Embassy in the US).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Yes 12.33% -37.67%
No 87.67% +37.67%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username