India has been under pressure from the US to limit purchases of Russian oil, the key source of revenue for the country to finance its war in Ukraine (Yahoo [Investing.com], Economic Times, Yahoo [Reuters]). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2026 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Indian Department of Commerce (Department of Commerce -TradeStat). On the page, ensure 1) "Trade Type" is set to "IMPORTS" and "Reports" is set to "Country-wise all Commodities," 2) "Month" and "Year" are set to the time periods you want, 3) "Country" is set to "RUSSIA," 4) "Commodity Level" is set to "4 digit," 5) "Values in" is set to "Quantity," 6) "Year Type" is set to "Calendar Year," and 7) click "Submit." After clicking "Submit" and once the page is populated, enter "2709" in the "Search" field. The data are denominated in kilograms. In the first three quarters of 2025, India imported a total of 64,251,796,438 kg (a barrel weighs roughly 136 kg, though it varies depending on the characteristics of the oil). A static xlsx file with the data may be downloaded here (pertinent dates and data highlighted in green): Download.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.