CJH asks:
What will be the percentage of national parliament voting intention for the Reform UK party in the United Kingdom as of 30 June 2026, according to Politico?
Started
Jan 16, 2026 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 30, 2026 07:01AM UTC
Closing Jun 30, 2026 07:01AM UTC
Nigel Farage's Reform UK party continues to roil UK politics (Politico, The Week). The question will be suspended on 29 June 2026 and the outcome determined using data as provided in Politico's "Poll of Polls" page for the UK no earlier than 7 July 2026 (Politico, use default "Smooth" view). Whether elections are called early and/or take place during the question's open period is immaterial.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 19% | 1.00% | -11.50% |
| At least 19%, but less than 22% | 3.20% | -9.30% |
| At least 22%, but less than 25% | 10.80% | -1.70% |
| At least 25%, but less than 28% | 27.60% | +15.10% |
| At least 28%, but less than 31% | 43.60% | +31.10% |
| At least 31%, but less than 34% | 11.60% | -0.90% |
| At least 34%, but less than 37% | 1.80% | -10.70% |
| 37% or more | 0.40% | -12.10% |