Before 1 January 2027, will the Council of the European Union (Council) determine the existence of economic coercion by a "third country" for the purposes of the Anti-Coercion Instrument?
Closing Jan 01, 2027 08:01AM UTC
In 2023, the Anti-Coercion Instrument entered into force in the EU, which enables the Council to determine if a non-EU country or customs territory's actions constitute coercion against the EU or an EU member state (European Commission - Trade and Economic Security, EU Anti-Coercion Instrument, CELIS Institute). Some in the EU have suggested using this mechanism to rebuke US demands regarding Greenland (France 24, PBS). The Council will be considered to have determined that economic coercion exists upon an adopted act being published in the Official Journal of the European Union (EU Anti-Coercion Instrument, see Article 5).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, with regard to the US | 7.00% | -18.00% |
| Yes, with regard to a country or customs territory other than the US | 5.00% | -20.00% |
| Yes, with regard to the US and a country or customs territory other than the US | 0% | -25.00% |
| No | 88.00% | +63.00% |