Ryan-C asks:
Between the week beginning 3 January 2026 and the week beginning 26 December 2026, how many total fatalities will occur in the US due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?
Closing Jan 01, 2027 08:01AM UTC
The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) is an independent global monitor that collects data on conflicts and protests around the world (ACLED - About, ACLED - Methodology). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2026 and the outcome determined using aggregated data as reported by ACLED (ACLED - Aggregated data on United States & Canada, free registration required). These data are recorded by week (the date shown is the first day of the week depicted), so "15-November-2025" would cover 15-21 November 2025 (ACLED - How To Use). The outcome will be determined by summing all figures in the "FATALITIES" column for the "WEEKS" of 3 January 2026 through and including 26 December 2026. The "EVENT_TYPE" is immaterial. Data will be accessed for resolution no sooner than 19 January 2027. As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 42 fatalities in the United States between the week beginning 4 January 2025 and the week beginning 27 December 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 20 | 11.11% | 0% |
| At least 20, but fewer than 40 | 11.11% | 0% |
| At least 40, but fewer than 80 | 11.11% | 0% |
| At least 80, but fewer than 120 | 11.11% | 0% |
| At least 120, but fewer than 180 | 11.11% | 0% |
| At least 180, but fewer than 240 | 11.11% | 0% |
| At least 240, but fewer than 300 | 11.11% | 0% |
| At least 300, but fewer than 400 | 11.11% | 0% |
| 400 or more | 11.11% | 0% |