Before 1 January 2027, will Miguel Díaz-Canel either flee Cuba or cease to be its president?

Started Feb 06, 2026 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2027 08:01AM UTC

In the wake of Nicolás Maduro's capture, the US is putting pressure on Cuba and is reportedly seeking regime change for the communist-controlled island (MSN [Wall Street Journal], ABC News). Díaz-Canel was approved for a five-year term as president in 2023 (PBS). Whether or not Díaz-Canel has fled Cuba will be determined using credible, open-source media reporting. The mere stripping of international recognition of the Díaz-Canel regime alone will not count. The death, resignation, renunciation, and/or capture of Díaz-Canel is not necessary for him to be considered to have ceased to be the president of Cuba, and whether he is still in power will be determined using credible, open-source media reporting. A title change that does not result in Díaz-Canel ceasing to be the head of state of Cuba will not count (Britannica - Head of State).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Yes 62.00% +12.00%
No 38.00% -12.00%

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