What will be the net change in the United States' coal-fired power capacity (Gigawatts, or GW) in 2026 as compared to 2025, according to Global Energy Monitor (GEM)?
Closing Jan 01, 2027 08:01AM UTC
The US has reduced its reliance on coal for power generation in recent years, but rising demand for power for AI projects may see the pace of retirements slow (Yahoo [Reuters], Mining Weekly). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2026 and the outcome determined using data as reported by GEM once data for all of 2026 are first reported (GEM). On the dashboard page, change "Select a Country/Area or Region" to "United States," see the "How much coal capacity has been added and retired?" chart, and hover your cursor over the black line to reveal "Net change" data. In the event of ambiguity due to rounding on the chart, downloaded data will be used for resolution. As of the launch of this question, the net change for the US in 2025 as compared to 2024 was a decrease of 3.89 GW.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours |
|---|---|---|
| A decrease of more than 20 GW | 0% | 0% |
| A decrease of more than 16 GW, but at most 20 GW | 0% | 0% |
| A decrease of more than 12 GW, but at most 16 GW | 0% | 0% |
| A decrease of more than 8 GW, but at most 12 GW | 1.00% | -0.25% |
| A decrease of more than 4 GW, but at most 8 GW | 35.00% | +16.25% |
| A decrease of more than 0 GW, but at most 4 GW | 32.00% | -8.00% |
| No change or an increase | 32.00% | -8.00% |