Started
Mar 01, 2016 06:00PM UTC
•
Closed
Jun 23, 2016 06:59AM UTC
Will a majority of voters in Britain's upcoming referendum elect to remain in the European Union?
Resolved 6/24/16: The majority of British voters elected to leave the EU (BBC, Reuters). Scores are based on forecasts made through 11:59pm Pacific on 22 June 2016. After concluding a deal with the EU in February, Prime Minister David Cameron scheduled a referendum on "Brexit" for 23 June 2016 (The Economist, BBC, NY Times). Recommended Questions Who will be the next mayor of London? Will Syria hold UN-backed elections before 1 January 2018?
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 75.00% | |
| No | 25.00% |
Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 1740 |
| average for questions older than 6 months: 258 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 4366 |
| average for questions older than 6 months: 686 | |
| Accuracy of participants | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | about average |
