Started Mar 01, 2016 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 23, 2016 06:59AM UTC

Will a majority of voters in Britain's upcoming referendum elect to remain in the European Union?

Resolved 6/24/16: The majority of British voters elected to leave the EU (BBC, Reuters). Scores are based on forecasts made through 11:59pm Pacific on 22 June 2016. After concluding a deal with the EU in February, Prime Minister David Cameron scheduled a referendum on "Brexit" for 23 June 2016 (The Economist, BBC, NY Times). Recommended Questions Who will be the next mayor of London? Will Syria hold UN-backed elections before 1 January 2018?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 75.00%
No 25.00%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 1740
average for questions older than 6 months: 258
Number of Forecasts 4366
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.07
2.
-1.07
4.
-1.054
5.
-1.05

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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