Started Nov 09, 2020 11:00PM UTC   •   Closing Mar 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 9 November 2020 and 28 February 2021, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan?

In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC (Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs). Two countries in Oceania, the Solomon Islands and Kiribati, were the countries to most recently cease to recognize the ROC (Newsweek).

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Name Probability
Yes 0%

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