Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will a piece of federal legislation providing for $250 billion or more of new fiscal stimulus become law in the U.S. before 1 January 2021?

Started Dec 09, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 28, 2020 12:00AM UTC

In response to the economic consequences from the COVID-19 pandemic, policymakers have made efforts to stimulate the American economy (CNBC). Debate over another round of fiscal stimulus continues (CNBC, Washington Post). The outcome will be determined using the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget's covidmoneytracker.org interactive table by selecting legislation that becomes law during the question's open period (if any) and totaling the amount "ALLOWED" in the "Legislative" subtotal (COVID Money Tracker). Amounts in the "Administrative" and "Federal Reserve" subtotals would not count.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 27 December 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 73.00%
No 27.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 66
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 237
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.2317
2.
-0.170544
3.
-0.127261
4.
-0.1138
5.
-0.112711

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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