Started Dec 09, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 28, 2020 12:00AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will a piece of federal legislation providing for $250 billion or more of new fiscal stimulus become law in the U.S. before 1 January 2021?

In response to the economic consequences from the COVID-19 pandemic, policymakers have made efforts to stimulate the American economy (CNBC). Debate over another round of fiscal stimulus continues (CNBC, Washington Post). The outcome will be determined using the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget's covidmoneytracker.org interactive table by selecting legislation that becomes law during the question's open period (if any) and totaling the amount "ALLOWED" in the "Legislative" subtotal (COVID Money Tracker). Amounts in the "Administrative" and "Federal Reserve" subtotals would not count.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 27 December 2020.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Final Crowd Forecast

73%

Chance

Correct Answer

Yes

No. of
Forecasters

66

Forecast
Count

237

Crowd Brier Score

0.2555


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.232
2.
-0.171
3.
-0.127
4.
-0.114
5.
-0.113

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