Started Dec 18, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Aug 14, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?

Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action (Forbes, NY Times, Nerd Wallet). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress (CNBC, Forbes). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 14 August 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

145

Forecast
Count

585

Crowd Brier Score

0.0901


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.128
2.
-0.128
3.
-0.127
4.
-0.127
5.
-0.127

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username