Started Feb 19, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 16, 2021 07:01AM UTC

What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021?

With progress battling the COVID-19 pandemic continues, interest rates have begun to rise beyond the record lows of 2020 (CNBC, Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC (CNBC).

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The question closed "Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive" with a closing date of 16 September 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 1.000 0%
Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive 100%
More than 1.500 but less than 2.000 0%
Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive 0%
More than 2.500 0%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 133
average for questions older than 6 months: 258
Number of Forecasts 1035
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.327
3.
-0.289
5.
-0.185

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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