Started Feb 26, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Mar 03, 2021 05:00PM UTC

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Will France grant the China Global Television Network (CGTN) a license to broadcast in France before 1 January 2022?

In February 2021, the UK Office of Communications (Ofcom) revoked CGTN’s license to broadcast in the country, therefore cutting its access to other countries in Europe (Ofcom, Deutsche Welle, Council of Europe [not the EU]). The Financial Times has reported that CGTN approached French regulators in December 2020 about seeking a license to broadcast in France, which could return CGTN to the UK and elsewhere (Financial Times, Reuters, Politico.eu). The date a license would take effect would be immaterial.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 3 March 2021.

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Final Crowd Forecast

100%

Chance

Correct Answer

Yes

No. of
Forecasters

35

Forecast
Count

59

Crowd Brier Score

0.7005


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.685
2.
-0.601
3.
-0.536
4.
-0.501
5.
-0.442

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