Started Mar 26, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the UN, a UN agency, and/or OECD member country publicly accuse Myanmar defense forces and/or law enforcement of using a toxic chemical against protesters to cause intentional death or physical harm through its toxic properties before 15 September 2021?

As civil unrest in Myanmar grows in the wake of the February coup, there are fears as to what lengths the military may go to suppress protests (BBC, Deutsche Welle). The use of riot control agents (e.g., "tear gas"), as defined in Article II, section 7 of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), would only count for the purposes of this question if the pertinent accusation claims its use was in violation of international law (CWC.gov, Arms Control Association, Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons). The identification of the exact chemical used against protesters would not be necessary for resolution. Examples include the use of white phosphorous in Myanmar in 2013 and Syria's use of chlorine in its civil war (BBC, Arms Control Association).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 15 September 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 126
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 376
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.05
2.
-0.05
3.
-0.05
4.
-0.05
5.
-0.05

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username