Adam Grant and Tim Harford ask:

What will be Saudi Arabia's crude oil production for July 2021, according to OPEC?

Started Apr 09, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

In early 2021 Saudi Arabia voluntarily cut oil production to a little over 8 million (or equivalently, 8,000 thousand) barrels per day, but it is looking to increase production starting in May 2021 (Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data for Saudi Arabia as reported in the "OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d" table in the "World Oil Supply" section of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report for August 2021 (OPEC). The February 2021 report showing data for January 2021 reported that Saudi Arabia produced 9,054 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) (OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report - February 2021, see Table 5-8 on page number 47).

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The question closed "Between 9,000 tb/d and 9,500 tb/d, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 August 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 8,000 tb/d 0%
Between 8,000 tb/d and 8,500 tb/d, inclusive 0%
More than 8,500 tb/d but less than 9,000 tb/d 2%
Between 9,000 tb/d and 9,500 tb/d, inclusive 88%
More than 9,500 tb/d 10%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 157
Average for questions older than 6 months: 220
Number of Forecasts 558
Average for questions older than 6 months: 615
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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