Started May 07, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Tim Harford asks:

Will US print book sales in 2021 exceed those in 2020?

In 2020, print book sales in the US were at their highest in a decade, rising 8.2% year over year (Publishing Perspectives, Publishers Weekly). The outcome will be determined using print book sales data as provided by The NPD Group (The NPD Group).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 99.00%
No 1.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 173
Average for questions older than 6 months: 250
Number of Forecasts 772
Average for questions older than 6 months: 677
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.602
2.
-0.602
3.
-0.602
5.
-0.559

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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