Tim Harford asks:

Will US print book sales in 2021 exceed those in 2020?

Started May 07, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

In 2020, print book sales in the US were at their highest in a decade, rising 8.2% year over year (Publishing Perspectives, Publishers Weekly). The outcome will be determined using print book sales data as provided by The NPD Group (The NPD Group).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 99.00%
No 1.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 173
Average for questions older than 6 months: 216
Number of Forecasts 772
Average for questions older than 6 months: 607
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username