Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will the US announce a reduction or elimination of total punitive tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber before 1 September 2021?
The high cost of lumber is impacting housing prices in the US, and the approximately 9% punitive tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber only adds pressure to the market (Mortgage News Daily, CNN). A "punitive tariff" is either an antidumping or countervailing tariff, also referred to as a duty (Reference for Business). The Trump administration cut the punitive tariffs down from approximately 20% in late 2020 (PR Newswire, NAHB Now). The date a reduction or elimination of the total punitive tariffs would take effect is immaterial. A temporary reduction or elimination would count.
NOTE 26 May 2021: New product exceptions to the punitive tariffs alone would not count.
NOTE 24 June 2021: A punitive tariff reduction announced after an increase made during the question's open period would count.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 September 2021.