Started May 14, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the US announce a reduction or elimination of total punitive tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber before 1 September 2021?

The high cost of lumber is impacting housing prices in the US, and the approximately 9% punitive tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber only adds pressure to the market (Mortgage News Daily, CNN). A "punitive tariff" is either an antidumping or countervailing tariff, also referred to as a duty (Reference for Business). The Trump administration cut the punitive tariffs down from approximately 20% in late 2020 (PR Newswire, NAHB Now). The date a reduction or elimination of the total punitive tariffs would take effect is immaterial. A temporary reduction or elimination would count.

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NOTE 26 May 2021: New product exceptions to the punitive tariffs alone would not count.

NOTE 24 June 2021: A punitive tariff reduction announced after an increase made during the question's open period would count.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 September 2021.

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Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

68

Forecast
Count

158

Crowd Brier Score

0.1033


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.111
3.
-0.091
4.
-0.087
5.
-0.077

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