Started May 14, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the US announce a reduction or elimination of total punitive tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber before 1 September 2021?

The high cost of lumber is impacting housing prices in the US, and the approximately 9% punitive tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber only adds pressure to the market (Mortgage News Daily, CNN). A "punitive tariff" is either an antidumping or countervailing tariff, also referred to as a duty (Reference for Business). The Trump administration cut the punitive tariffs down from approximately 20% in late 2020 (PR Newswire, NAHB Now). The date a reduction or elimination of the total punitive tariffs would take effect is immaterial. A temporary reduction or elimination would count.

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NOTE 26 May 2021: New product exceptions to the punitive tariffs alone would not count.

NOTE 24 June 2021: A punitive tariff reduction announced after an increase made during the question's open period would count.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 September 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 68
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 158
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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