Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Between 18 June 2021 and 18 July 2021, will protests in Peru result in any fatalities?
Started
Jun 17, 2021 10:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 18, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Closed Jul 18, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Peru's tight runoff election results have led to mostly peaceful demonstrations in Lima, recalling a week of political protests in late 2020 that turned violent (Reuters, NY Times, BBC). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 19 July 2021.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| No | 99% | |
| Yes, between 1 and 10 | 1% | |
| Yes, between 11 and 50 | 0% | |
| Yes, between 51 and 150 | 0% | |
| Yes, more than 150 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 62 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 201 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
