Started Jun 17, 2021 10:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 18, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 18 June 2021 and 18 July 2021, will protests in Peru result in any fatalities?

Peru's tight runoff election results have led to mostly peaceful demonstrations in Lima, recalling a week of political protests in late 2020 that turned violent (Reuters, NY Times, BBC). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 19 July 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
No 99%
Yes, between 1 and 10 1%
Yes, between 11 and 50 0%
Yes, between 51 and 150 0%
Yes, more than 150 0%

No. of
Forecasters

62

Forecast
Count

201

Crowd Brier Score

0.0198


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.023
2.
-0.022
3.
-0.022
5.
-0.02

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