Started Jul 02, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many New York City eviction filings will be reported for 2021?

New York City is closely watching the status of eviction moratoriums that were enacted by the federal government and the state of New York during the coronavirus pandemic but are set to expire soon (NY Times, AP, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined using data from the Eviction Lab as reported on 17 January 2022 (Eviction Lab). The relevant data can be retrieved by scrolling down to the row with "New York" under the "Site" column, downloading the corresponding CSV file and, in that file, sorting by weeks, summing the values under the "filings_2020" column for weeks 53 through 104. In 2020 (defined as weeks 1 through 52), there were a total of 74,345 eviction filings as of the launch of this question.

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The question closed "Fewer than 60,000" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 60,000 100%
Between 60,000 and 80,000, inclusive 0%
More than 80,000 but fewer than 120,000 0%
Between 120,000 and 240,000, inclusive 0%
More than 240,000 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 46
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 259
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.561
3.
-0.392
5.
-0.363

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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