Started Jul 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 14, 2021 03:00PM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 2 October 2021, will the UN General Assembly recognize delegates from the National Unity Government (NUG) as representing Myanmar for the 76th General Assembly session?

The NUG is a rival government established after the Myanmar Defense Forces staged a coup on 1 February 2021 (France 24, NUG). The 76th Session of the UN General Assembly is scheduled to open on 14 September 2021, but who will be recognized as the delegate(s) for Myanmar remains to be seen (UN, Asia Times, CNN, UN). The question would close upon the UN General Assembly's recognition of any delegate(s) as representing Myanmar. Attendance alone would not count (e.g., AP).

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NOTE 13 September 2021: For the purposes of this question, provisional recognition would count.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 14 September 2021.

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Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

Correct Answer

Yes

No. of
Forecasters

49

Forecast
Count

160

Crowd Brier Score

1.8583


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.348
2.
-1.314
3.
-1.238
4.
-1.13
5.
-0.816

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