Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 2 October 2021, will the UN General Assembly recognize delegates from the National Unity Government (NUG) as representing Myanmar for the 76th General Assembly session?

Started Jul 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 14, 2021 03:00PM UTC

The NUG is a rival government established after the Myanmar Defense Forces staged a coup on 1 February 2021 (France 24, NUG). The 76th Session of the UN General Assembly is scheduled to open on 14 September 2021, but who will be recognized as the delegate(s) for Myanmar remains to be seen (UN, Asia Times, CNN, UN). The question would close upon the UN General Assembly's recognition of any delegate(s) as representing Myanmar. Attendance alone would not count (e.g., AP).

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NOTE 13 September 2021: For the purposes of this question, provisional recognition would count.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 14 September 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 49
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 160
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.348
2.
-1.314
3.
-1.238
4.
-1.13
5.
-0.816

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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