Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 November 2021, will a new government mask mandate for individuals fully vaccinated for COVID-19 that includes indoor restaurants and/or retail establishments be imposed on New York City?

Started Aug 06, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

With COVID-19 cases increasing, Mayor Bill de Blasio announced new mandates for proof of COVID-19 vaccination in order to use many indoor locations but stopped short of imposing a new mask mandate (NYC.gov, NY Post, CNN, NYC.gov - COVID-19 Page). The question would close upon a mandate taking effect. A mandate with specific exceptions would count, and a mandate would not have to cover the whole of New York City to count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 November 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 93
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 377
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.626
3.
-0.598
4.
-0.518
5.
-0.467

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username