Started Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 13, 2021 07:30PM UTC

and Tim Harford ask:

Will the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) announce the finalization of the "Paris Rulebook," the rules for implementing the 2015 Paris Agreement, before 16 November 2021?

A majority of the "Paris Rulebook" was adopted at COP24 in 2018, but unresolved issues remain (Sky News, World Resources Institute, Gov.uk, Environmental Defense Fund). COP26 is scheduled for 31 October 2021 to 12 November 2021 (UKCOP26.org).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 13 November 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 20.00%
No 80.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 111
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 284
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.34
2.
-1.295
3.
-1.285
4.
-1.165
5.
-1.135

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username