Started Oct 08, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 24, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Tim Harford asks:

What will be the value of the shipping-costs benchmark Baltic Exchange Dry Index as of 24 December 2021?

As economies emerge from the worst of the pandemic, costs of global shipping have skyrocketed in 2021 (NASDAQ, Hellenic Shipping News, Investopedia, Bloomberg). The outcome will be determined using Baltic Exchange Dry Index data as reported by Trading Economics (Trading Economics).

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The question closed "Lower than 2,500.00" with a closing date of 24 December 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 2,500.00 100%
Between 2,500.00 and 4,000.00, inclusive 0%
Higher than 4,000.00 but lower than 5,500.00 0%
Between 5,500.00 and 7,000.00, inclusive 0%
Higher than 7,000.00 but lower than 8,500.00 0%
Between 8,500.00 and 10,000.00, inclusive 0%
Higher than 10,000.00 0%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 66
average for questions older than 6 months: 257
Number of Forecasts 434
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.28
2.
-0.179
3.
-0.159
4.
-0.141

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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