Started Dec 07, 2021 01:15AM UTC   •   Closed Dec 08, 2021 05:40PM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Canada announce a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, China, before 1 February 2022?

The US government announced that it would hold a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Beijing Olympics to protest various policies of the People's Republic of China, with other countries reportedly considering the same (ABC News, Forbes, CTV News). A diplomatic boycott means no official representatives from Canada would attend any events of the Beijing 2022 Games, scheduled to begin on 4 February 2022, but would not necessarily affect athlete participation (Olympics.com, Voice of America). Canada announcing a diplomatic boycott as part of a group (e.g., the G7) would count.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 8 December 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 80.00%
No 20.00%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 51
average for questions in their first 6 months: 225
Number of Forecasts 73
average for questions in their first 6 months: 550
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.125
3.
-0.101
4.
-0.063
5.
-0.063

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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