Before 1 December 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?
Closed Dec 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Tensions between the US and Iran remain high (NBC News, Guardian). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 December 2022.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4.63% | |
| No | 95.37% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 204 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 427 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
