The Economist asks:
What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US core Consumer Price Index for August 2022?
Closed Sep 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Core inflation is the change in the prices of goods and services with food and energy excluded (Economist, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2022 and the outcome determined using unadjusted data as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, expected in September 2022 (BLS, select "All items less food and energy). For August 2021, the 12-month percentage change was 4.0% (BLS CPI Report - August 2021, see Table A under "Unadjusted 12-mos. ended Aug. 2021").
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Between 5.5% and 7.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 September 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
|Possible Answer||Correct?||Final Crowd Forecast|
|Less than 2.5%||0%|
|Between 2.5% and 4.0%, inclusive||2%|
|More than 4.0% but less than 5.5%||8%|
|Between 5.5% and 7.0%, inclusive||75%|
|More than 7.0%||15%|
Crowd Forecast Profile
|Number of Forecasters||177|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 229|
|Number of Forecasts||736|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 637|
|Participants in this question vs. all forecasters||average|