What will be the percentage change in Russia’s GDP in 2022 relative to its GDP in 2021, according to the IMF?

Started Mar 11, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, numerous countries have imposed sanctions on Russia and numerous companies have suspended operations in or pulled out of Russia (CNN, Fortune). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data, from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2023, which is expected in April 2023. At the IMF website (IMF), choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Countries” file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, constant prices" and Units as "Percent change." Russia’s GDP percentage change in constant prices for 2021 was estimated to be 4.690% according to the October 2021 report (World Economic Outlook - October 2021).

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The question closed "Higher, or lower by less than 4.0%" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower by 20.0% or more 3%
Lower by more than 16.0% but less than 20.0% 3%
Lower by between 12.0% and 16.0%, inclusive 5%
Lower by more than 8.0% but less than 12.0% 6%
Lower by between 4.0% and 8.0%, inclusive 30%
Higher, or lower by less than 4.0% 53%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 117
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 685
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.878
2.
-0.774
3.
-0.692
4.
-0.564
5.
-0.547

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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