Started Apr 08, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop and David Epstein ask:

Will US real GDP contract in both the third quarter (Q3) and fourth quarter (Q4) of 2022?

High inflation, monetary tightening, the war in Ukraine, and ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have raised concerns over economic growth in the US this year (CNBC, CNN, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using data for Q3 and Q4 of 2022 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database upon the release of the BEA’s third estimate for Q4 2022 (FRED, BEA). The question would close "No" if the third estimate for Q3 2022 indicates no US real GDP contraction.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 37.91% -0.09% +0.01% -5.77%
No 62.09% +0.09% -0.01% +5.77%

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