David Epstein asks:

What will be the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the US for the week ending 19 December 2022?

Started Apr 15, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 19, 2022 08:01AM UTC

The price of gasoline in the US hit all-time highs in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ABC News, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for "Weekly U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices" (EIA, see table).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "Between 3.000 and 3.400, inclusive" with a closing date of 19 December 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 3.000 4%
Between 3.000 and 3.400, inclusive 57%
More than 3.400 but less than 3.800 30%
Between 3.800 and 4.200, inclusive 6%
More than 4.200 but less than 4.600 2%
Between 4.600 and 5.000, inclusive 1%
More than 5.000 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 192
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 873
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username