Started Apr 15, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 19, 2022 08:01AM UTC

David Epstein asks:

What will be the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the US for the week ending 19 December 2022?

The price of gasoline in the US hit all-time highs in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ABC News, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for "Weekly U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices" (EIA, see table).

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The question closed "Between 3.000 and 3.400, inclusive" with a closing date of 19 December 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 3.000 4%
Between 3.000 and 3.400, inclusive 57%
More than 3.400 but less than 3.800 30%
Between 3.800 and 4.200, inclusive 6%
More than 4.200 but less than 4.600 2%
Between 4.600 and 5.000, inclusive 1%
More than 5.000 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 192
Average for questions older than 6 months: 239
Number of Forecasts 873
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.512
4.
-0.438
5.
-0.436

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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