Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
At close of business on 31 December 2022, what will be the upper limit of the US federal funds target range?
Closed Dec 31, 2022 10:00PM UTC
The Federal Reserve has begun tightening monetary policy as the US faces historic levels of inflation (CNBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (FRED, Federal Reserve). As of Friday 27 May 2022, the upper limit of the US federal funds target range was 1.00%.
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The question closed "Higher than 3.75" with a closing date of 31 December 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Lower than 1.75 | 0% | |
| Between 1.75 and 2.25, inclusive | 1% | |
| Higher than 2.25 but lower than 3.25 | 5% | |
| Between 3.25 and 3.75, inclusive | 0% | |
| Higher than 3.75 | 94% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 77 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 219 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 487 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 613 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
