Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

At close of business on 31 December 2022, what will be the upper limit of the US federal funds target range?

Started May 27, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2022 10:00PM UTC

The Federal Reserve has begun tightening monetary policy as the US faces historic levels of inflation (CNBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (FRED, Federal Reserve). As of Friday 27 May 2022, the upper limit of the US federal funds target range was 1.00%.

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The question closed "Higher than 3.75" with a closing date of 31 December 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 1.75 0%
Between 1.75 and 2.25, inclusive 1%
Higher than 2.25 but lower than 3.25 5%
Between 3.25 and 3.75, inclusive 0%
Higher than 3.75 94%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 77
Average for questions older than 6 months: 219
Number of Forecasts 487
Average for questions older than 6 months: 613
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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