Started May 27, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for "Food" in November 2022?

Food prices in the US and around the world are rising quickly due to various factors, including Russia's invasion of Ukraine (NY Post, USDA Economic Research Service). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2022 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for "Food," expected in December 2022 (BLS, select "Food"). For November 2021, the change was 6.1%.

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The question closed "Between 10.0% and 12.5%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 December 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 5.0% 0%
Between 5.0% and 7.5%, inclusive 0%
More than 7.5% but less than 10.0% 8%
Between 10.0% and 12.5%, inclusive 90%
More than 12.5% but less than 15.0% 2%
15.0% or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 78
Average for questions older than 6 months: 239
Number of Forecasts 427
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.124
3.
-0.124
4.
-0.114
5.
-0.106

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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