Started Jun 24, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 08, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 8 November 2022, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?

Gas prices are expected to play a major role in 2022 midterm election campaigns (CBS News, Politico, CNN). The question will be suspended on 7 November 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by AAA for 8 November 2022 (AAA, see "Today's AAA National Average" graphic).

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The question closed "More than $3.50 but less than $4.00" with a closing date of 8 November 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $3.00 0%
Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive 2%
More than $3.50 but less than $4.00 89%
Between $4.00 and $4.50, inclusive 8%
More than $4.50 but less than $5.00 1%
Between $5.00 and $5.50, inclusive 0%
More than $5.50 but less than $6.00 0%
Between $6.00 and $6.50, inclusive 0%
More than $6.50 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 92
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 433
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 527
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.118
2.
-0.101
3.
-0.097
4.
-0.078
5.
-0.077

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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