Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many travelers will the US Transportation Security Agency (TSA) screen in December 2022?

Started Jun 24, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

As COVID-19 becomes less of a concern in the US, the airline industry is struggling to return to pre-pandemic operations (US News & World Report, CNBC, USA Today). The outcome will be determined using "TSA checkpoint travel numbers" as reported by the TSA (TSA). Totals for December in the previous three years were 70,250,692 in 2019; 26,417,472 in 2020; and 58,863,955 in 2021.

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The question closed "More than 65 million but fewer than 70 million" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 50 million 1%
Between 50 million and 55 million, inclusive 0%
More than 55 million but fewer than 60 million 1%
Between 60 million and 65 million, inclusive 33%
More than 65 million but fewer than 70 million 65%
Between 70 million and 75 million, inclusive 0%
More than 75 million 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 35
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 314
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.067
2.
-0.063
4.
-0.058
5.
-0.057

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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