Started Jun 24, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many travelers will the US Transportation Security Agency (TSA) screen in December 2022?

As COVID-19 becomes less of a concern in the US, the airline industry is struggling to return to pre-pandemic operations (US News & World Report, CNBC, USA Today). The outcome will be determined using "TSA checkpoint travel numbers" as reported by the TSA (TSA). Totals for December in the previous three years were 70,250,692 in 2019; 26,417,472 in 2020; and 58,863,955 in 2021.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Fewer than 50 million 0.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
Between 50 million and 55 million, inclusive 0.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
More than 55 million but fewer than 60 million 9.00% +0.00% +0.00% +1.00%
Between 60 million and 65 million, inclusive 40.00% +0.00% +0.00% -5.00%
More than 65 million but fewer than 70 million 45.00% +0.00% +0.00% +3.00%
Between 70 million and 75 million, inclusive 6.00% +0.00% +0.00% +1.00%
More than 75 million 0.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%

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