Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
How many travelers will the US Transportation Security Agency (TSA) screen in December 2022?
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
As COVID-19 becomes less of a concern in the US, the airline industry is struggling to return to pre-pandemic operations (US News & World Report, CNBC, USA Today). The outcome will be determined using "TSA checkpoint travel numbers" as reported by the TSA (TSA). Totals for December in the previous three years were 70,250,692 in 2019; 26,417,472 in 2020; and 58,863,955 in 2021.
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The question closed "More than 65 million but fewer than 70 million" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Fewer than 50 million | 1% | |
Between 50 million and 55 million, inclusive | 0% | |
More than 55 million but fewer than 60 million | 1% | |
Between 60 million and 65 million, inclusive | 33% | |
More than 65 million but fewer than 70 million | 65% | |
Between 70 million and 75 million, inclusive | 0% | |
More than 75 million | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 35 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208 | |
Number of Forecasts | 314 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |